World Maritime News
WMNF13/11/2024
Trump Re-election Impact on Shipping
1 Economic Impact: High tariff policies are likely to impact container shipping severely. Potential stagnation or decline in global trade growth.
2 Sector-Specific Effects:
– Container Shipping: Expected to face significant negative impact.
– Tanker Industry: Relatively positive outlook.
– Marine Insurance: May face challenges due to changes in sanctions policies.
3 Short-Term Implications: Possible temporary increase in shipments before tariff implementation. Initial positive reaction in financial markets.
4 Broader Concerns: Potential changes in climate change policy, sanctions, and social policies.
While Trump’s policies could significantly affect the shipping industry, these were likely not primary concerns for many U.S. voters.
Read more: Lloyd’s List| JOC
Trump, COP and what to expect next inside the IMO
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely lead to a U.S. retreat from global climate diplomacy and a reversal of Biden’s decarbonization policies. While this may not immediately derail shipping-specific climate regulations at the IMO, it could create headwinds for investment in green fuel production. Trump’s victory will overshadow the upcoming COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, making negotiations more challenging. Trump has promised to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement and may dismantle key domestic climate laws. For shipping, the IMO’s 2050 net-zero targets remain largely “Trump-proofed” for now. Still, a U.S. exit from climate negotiations could shift global leadership dynamics, potentially prompting China to take a more prominent role. European interests are now focusing on how the E.U. can fill the void, including calls for dedicated funding for maritime decarbonization solutions.
Read more: Lloyd’s List
Faster energy transition would cut shipping demand growth
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that a faster energy transition will reduce shipping demand growth due to decreased fossil fuel trade. The IEA modeled different climate policy scenarios to predict trade volume and value by 2050. When governments meet their climate pledges (APS), shipping activity will be 10% lower by 2035 and 15% lower by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario (Steps). Emissions from international shipping could decline by nearly 60% by 2035 and over 90% by 2050, driven by biofuels and near-zero emissions of ammonia and methanol. In the Steps scenario, shipping activity will grow by 15% by 2035 and 40% by 2050, with LNG trade increasing significantly. The net-zero emissions scenario shows slower overall growth, with a 2% decline by 2035 but a 10% increase by 2050. Containership activity nearly doubles in all scenarios, while tanker numbers drop significantly if climate pledges are met.
Read more: Lloyd’s List
Box carrier delays rise to highest level since pandemic
Container shipping delays have reached their highest level since the pandemic, with average delays for late vessels increasing to 5.67 days in September 2024. This is the highest September figure since 2021-2022. Reliability in the container sector decreased to 51.4%, far below pre-pandemic levels. The current delays are primarily due to longer transit times caused by Red Sea rerouting rather than port congestion, as seen during the pandemic. Only transpacific trade lanes saw improvements year-on-year in Q3 2024, while Asia-Europe routes continued to suffer. Maersk was the best-performing carrier in terms of reliability in Q3 2024, followed by CMA CGM and MSC. However, none of the top 13 carriers have improved their reliability this year. The early peak in the box sector was likely due to the pre-positioning of cargo rather than increased consumer spending.
Read more: Lloyd’s List
Container shipping to stay volatile into 2025
Volatility in container shipping markets will continue into next year, but new capacity should ease some of it. Logistics and supply chain manager Flexport said in a webinar that it expects demand to grow by 3% in 2025 with capacity to grow by 8%, with supply and demand more or less equal going into next year. Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen told the webinar that he assumed the Suez Canal would not reopen next year. What we have been used to in 2024 will continue throughout 2025, Jensen said. The wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as tariff wars between China and the U.S., were not crises but new normals. This is the consequence of a world that is already multipolar, so we’re going to see more conflict going forward, Jensen said. “This is not an aberration.” But he warned shippers that container services would be in “complete disarray” in February and March as the new container alliances phased in their new networks.
Read more: Lloyd’s List
Containership newbuilding deliveries hit all-time record
Deliveries of new containerships this year have already exceeded all previous annual records, as more than 400 vessels with a combined slot capacity of 2.5m teu have entered service since January. Just 10 months into 2024, shipyards’ deliveries of containerships have reached a new annual record, said BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen. “A total of 410 ships with a capacity of 2.5m teu have been delivered, surpassing the previous full-year high of 2.3m teu in 2023.”
Read more: Lloyd’s List| JOC
Maersk chief plays down fears of liner overcapacity
A historically high fleet-to-orderbook ratio and little sign of a let-up in newbuilding activity in the container shipping sector has led to growing concerns about a new era of overcapacity. Still, Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc poured cold water on any looming anxieties. Even if carriers return to their traditional Red Sea routing on the east-west trades, he is confident that container lines have the “levers” to absorb the influx of tonnage.
Read more: Lloyd’s List| JOC
Shanghai reveals plan to spearhead transition to green shipping fuels
Shanghai aims to be a frontrunner in bunkering, trading, and certifying alternative marine fuels and to supply at least 1m tonnes of green fuels by 2030. The city plans to set up a bunkering system by 2030, sourcing supplies locally and from projects across China. It will also prepare itself to be a hub for global green fuels trading and certification, as outlined in a recent work plan released by the city’s economic planner and transportation commission. By 2030, Shanghai anticipates a local supply of 300,000 tonnes of green fuels, encompassing green methanol, ammonia, bio-LNG, and biofuel. Moreover, the city aims to secure a 1m tonnes supply from projects nationwide, intending to enhance collaboration with regions abundant in natural resources for green fuel production, including those in the northeast, west, and along the Yangtze River.
Read more: Lloyd’s List
Shanghai to establish maritime decarbonization center in 2025
Shanghai will launch a maritime decarbonization center next year to coordinate efforts on green fuels promotion, a government official said at this year’s China International Import Expo. The new center will integrate research, policy-making, standards development, and green fuel trading, said Lin Yisong, a director at Shanghai’s Lingang area shipping department, at the event. The center in Shanghai will be China’s first such institution to focus on green methanol, hydrogen, and ammonia, Lin said, highlighting that it will build the foundation for advancing green fuel standardization and industrialization in the country.
Read more: Lloyd’s List
Alt fuels groups want E.U. help to set up supply chain
Shipping and alternative fuel lobby groups have called on European policymakers to help build a supply chain for green fuels. The new ‘Clean Maritime Fuels Platform’ includes the European Community Shipowners’ Associations, FuelsEurope, Hydrogen Europe, the e-Fuel Alliance, the advanced biofuels association Ewaba, and the Methanol Institute. The Clean Maritime Fuels Platform calls for creating the regulatory conditions to unlock investments in the production of clean maritime fuels in the E.U., a joint statement said. The groups warned that clean fuels cost up to five times as much as fossil fuels. They pointed to Mario Draghi’s recent report on boosting European growth, which said shipping would need around €40bn ($43bn) in annual investments between 2031 and 2050 to decarbonize. The 20m EU ETS allowances allocated to the decarbonization of the maritime sector until 2030 should be used as soon as possible, the groups added.
Read more: Lloyd’s List